假设题

ASSUMPTION题，也就是我们俗称的假设题，需要同学们选出选项作为原文结论成立的必要条件，使得文章结论成立的可能性提高。假设题是逻辑题考察的重点，与削弱题密切相关。

 典型问法：
The conclusion in the argument above is based on which of the following assumptions?
Which of the following is an additional premise required by the argument above?
Which of the following is required for the conclusion above?

 解题思路
在一开始了解假设题的时候我们提到，假设题的正确答案是文章结论成立的必要条件，也就是说没有这个条件，文章结论就不能成立了，这样就和削弱题联系上了，也就是说，假设题的最重要的做题方法就是取反削弱原文结论。我们用一道例题来了解一下这种方法。
例. 因为没有员工想让和自己有关的一些不好的信息传到自己上司的耳朵里，所以他们在向上级汇报信息的时候会弱化和扭曲事实。所以CEO知道的信息比他的下属要少一些。
以上的结论是建立在一下那一个的假设上的呢？
A. 问题应该在他们发生的那个层级解决；
B. 经历应该奖励准确汇报信息的员工；
C. 上级领导解决问题的能力与下级的员工要重要很多；
D. CEO除了听取员工的汇报，没有别的途径获取信息；
E. 一些员工更关心事实，而不是这些事实让领导知道的方式
正确答案：D
答案解析：这篇文章是Conditional Argument，文章的逻辑关系简图如下：
员工向上级泄气信息的时候弱化和扭曲事实——CEO知道的信息比他的下属少

正确答案应该是能够使得结论成立的必要条件，根据必要条件的特点，对选项取反，能够削弱文章结论的即为答案。对5个选型各自进行取反，只有D选型能够骑到削弱文章结论的作用，即“反D：领导出了听取员工汇报之外，还有其他的途径获取信息”，如果CEO有其他的途径获取信息，那么即便员工在向上级汇报信息的时候隐藏事实，CEO知道的也不一定比他的下级少，从而削弱了文章结论。“反D”¬¬→ 削弱，那么D → 假设，D选项取反削弱，是假设项。其他的选项都不能达到取反削弱的目的，也就不是文章成立的必要条件，都是无关项。

 正确答案形式和真题分析
 根据上面例题的分析，我们可以知道，削弱题的第一种答案形式是

1）NOT+WEAKEN
我们通过几道真题来掌握这种正确答案形式。

例1. The government should stop permitting tobacco companies to subtract advertising expenses from their revenues in calculating taxable income. Tobacco companies would then have to pay more taxes. As a consequence, they would raise the prices of their products and this price increase would discourage tobacco use.
Which of the following is an additional premise required by the argument above?
A. Tobacco companies would not offset the payment of extra taxes by reducing costs in other areas.
B. Tobacco companies would not continue to advertise if they were forced to pay higher taxes.
C. People would not continue to buy tobacco products if these products were no longer advertised.
D. The money the government would gain as a result of the increase in the tobacco companies taxable income would be used to educate the public about the dangers of tobacco use.
E. The increase in taxes paid by tobacco companies would be equal to the additional income generated by raising prices.

文章翻译：政府应该停止允许烟草公司在计算可纳税收入的时候从收入中减去广告的花费。烟草公司不得不多支付一部分税。结果烟草公司不得不提高价格，而高价使人们减少购买烟草产品。
文章分析：文章的逻辑关系见图如下
多收税——提价格——少吸烟
这篇文章是手段目的型的文章，政府想通过多收税的方式最终实现让人们少吸烟的目的，找到文章的假设，需要把选项取反看是否削弱文章结论。

选项分析：
A. 取反：烟草公司将通过降低其他方面的成本来抵消多交的那部分税。如果烟草公司可以这样来抵消多交的税的话，那么就不用提高成本，从而人们也不会减少烟草产品的使用了，取反削弱是假设。正确答案。
B. 取反：烟草公司将会继续做广告如果他们被迫交更多的税的话。做不做广告和烟草公司会不会提价格无关，无法削弱，无关项。
C. 取反：人们将会继续购买烟草产品如果烟草公司不再做广告的话。虽然前半句的确可以削弱人们不会继续购买烟草产品的结论，但是并没有提到多缴税的手段，所以也是无关项。再说段目的的题目中，正确答案一定要与手段有关。
D. 取反：政府通过税收多收的那部分钱不会用来做公众教育。与文章没有任何关系。无关项。
E. 取反：烟草公司多交的税不等于他们提价格多获得的那部分收入。即便是不相等，也知道价格的确是已经上升了，所以取反并不能削弱，无关项。

例2. Twenty percent of all energy consumed in the United States is consumed by home appliances. If appliances that are twice as energy-efficient as those currently available are produced, this figure will eventually be reduced to about ten percent.
The argument above requires which of the following assumption?
A. Home-appliance usage would not increase along with the energy efficiency of the appliances.
B. It wouldn’t be expensive to produce home appliances that are energy-efficient.
C. Home-appliance manufacturers now have the technology to produce appliances that are twice as energy-efficient as those currently available.
D. The cost of energy to the consumer world rise with increase in the energy efficiency of home appliances.
E. The percentage of energy consumed by home appliances will increase if existing appliances are not replaced by more energy-efficient models.

文章翻译：在美国，20%的能源消耗都是家电能源消耗，如果家电变得比现在的产品双倍节能的话，那么这个数字将会变成大约10%。
文章分析：文章的逻辑简图如下
家电比现在双倍节能——家电所占能耗变成10%
将选项取反之后找到能够削弱原文的是正确答案。

答案分析：
A. 取反：家电的使用量将会随着家电的节能而逐渐增加。家电总耗=家电单耗×家电的使用数量。根据文章的内容，家电单耗变成原来的1/2，但是如果使用量逐渐增加的话，那么，家电总耗变成原来一半的结果就被削弱了。取反削弱即为假设。正确答案。
B. 取反：生产双倍节能的电器很贵。生产成本高低与节能多少无关。无关项。
C. 取反：家电生产商现在不能生产出双倍节能的电器。文章已知前提就是现在如果使用双倍节能的电器，所以这个内容是对已知前提的否定，不可以，所以是无关项。
D. 取反：消费者的能耗不会成本随着家电的节能而逐渐增加。无关项。
E. 取反：如果现有电器没有被双倍节能的电器替代的话，那么家电能耗比例不会增加。但是这个改变了文章的已知前提。无关项。
 假设题的另外一种答案形式比较容易预测，只在在文章中可以发现文章前提和结论之间存在的概念性差异，想要使得结论成立，需要附加前提，这个附加前提就像桥梁一样是文章结论成立的可能性提高。所以第二种答案形式是
2）前后桥梁

例3. The federal government expects hospitals to perform 10,000 organ transplants next year. But it is doubtful that this many donor organs will be available, since the number of fatalities resulting from car and motorcycle accidents has been dropping steadily over the past decade.
The argument above makes which of the following assumptions?
A. A significant number of the organs used in transplants come from people who die in car and motorcycle accidents.
B. The number of car and motorcycle accidents will increase significantly during the next year.
C. No more than 10,000 people will be in need of organ transplants during the next year.
D. In the past the federal government’s estimates of the number of organ transplants needed during a given year have been very unreliable.
E. For any given fatality resulting from a car or motorcycle accident, there is a hospital in the vicinity in need of an organ for a transplant.

文章翻译：联邦政府预计明年将会有10000例器官移植手术。但是值得怀疑的是，这么多一直所需要的器官够不够，因为机动车事故的死亡率在过去几十年里稳步下降了。
文章分析：文章的逻辑见图如下
机动车事故的死亡率逐渐下降——移植所需要的器官不够用
通过分析文章我们可以很明显的看出，文章中存在一个gap，就是移植所需要的器官都是来自于机动车事故的死者。找到这个桥梁就可以了
选项分析：
A. 绝大多数移植所需要的器官都来自于死于机动车事故的人。这正是我们想找的答案。正确答案。
B. 机动车事故将在明年大量增加。事故的数量与死者人数不是一个概念。无关项。
C. 明年将会有超过10000例器官移植手术。是文章前提的重述，不是假设。
D. 在过去几年里，政府对于器官移植手术的数量的估计都是不可靠的。无关项。
E. 对于任何一次车祸发生出现死者的地方，旁边都有医院准备进行器官移植手术。无关项。

例4. Even though most universities retain the royalties from faculty members’ inventions, the faculty members retain the royalties from books and articles they write. Therefore, faculty members should retain the royalties from the educational computer software they develop.
The conclusion above would be more reasonably drawn if which of the following were inserted into the argument as an additional premise?
A. Royalties from inventions are higher than royalties from educational software programs.
B. Faculty members are more likely to produce educational software programs than inventions.
C. Inventions bring more prestige to universities that do books and articles.
D. In the experience of most universities, educational software programs are more marketable that are books and articles.
E. In terms of the criteria used to award royalties, educational software programs are more nearly comparable to books and articles than to inventions.

文章翻译：虽然大部分大学保留教职工发明的版税，而教职工自己保留书和文章的版税。所以，教职工也应该保留教育学软件的版税。
文章分析：文章的逻辑简图如下
发明——大学
教学学软件——教职工
文章中的前提和结论存在的gap是“书+文章=教育学软件”,在选项中找到这个桥梁就可以了。
选项分析：
A. 发明的版税要高于教育学软件的版税。无关项。
B. 教职工更有可能编写教育学软件而不是创造发明。无关项。
C. 发明给学校带来的荣誉比书和文章更多。声望的问题与文章无关。无关项。
D. 一绝大多数大学的经验来看，教育学软件比书和文章更有市场。那种更有市场无关。无关项。
E. 在判断版税的归属问题上，教育学软件更类似于书和文章而不是发明。这个桥梁有效的连接了文章中的“书+文章和教育学软件”，是桥梁假设。正确答案。

例5. The technological conservatism of bicycle manufacturers is a reflection of the kinds of demand they are trying to meet.  The only cyclists seriously interested in innovation and willing to pay for it are bicycle racers.  Therefore, innovation in bicycle technology is limited by what authorities will accept as standard for purposes of competition in bicycle races.
Which of the following is an assumption made in drawing the conclusion above?
A. The market for cheap, traditional bicycles cannot expand unless the market for high-performance competition bicycles expands.
B. High-performance bicycles are likely to be improved more as a result of technological innovations developed in small workshops than as a result of technological innovations developed in major manufacturing concerns.
C. Bicycle racers do not generate a strong demand for innovations that fall outside what is officially recognized as standard for purposes of competition.
D. The technological conservatism of bicycle manufacturers results primarily from their desire to manufacture a product that can be sold without being altered to suit different national markets.
E. The authorities who set standards for high-performance bicycle racing do not keep informed about innovative bicycle design.

文章翻译：自行车厂的技术创新反映了那些他们想要去迎合的人的需求。唯一对自行车创新感兴趣的就是赛车手。因此自行车厂的创新被限制在了自行车比赛的官方标准之内。
文章分析：文章的逻辑关系简图如下
自行车技术的创新满足赛车手的需求——自行车技术的创新被限制在了自行车比赛的官方标准之内
细读文章会发现，文章的前提和结论之间缺少一个条件，这个附加条件是“赛车手的需求被限制在了自行车比赛的官方标准之内”。
答案分析：
A. 取反：便宜的传统的自行车市场会扩张除非高性能赛车市场扩张。与结论无关。
B. 取反：高性能自行车很有可能是小的工作室改良的结果而不是大型生产厂商的改良结果。与结论无关。
C. 取反：赛车手会产生落在比赛官方标准你之外的需求。如果赛车手的需求不被官方标准所限制，那么自行车创新也就不会被官方标准限制，从而削弱了结论。取反削弱即为假设。正确答案。
D. 取反：自行车厂的技术创新不可能是由于他们想要生产产品来适应不同国家的市场而推动的。无关项。
E. 取反：制定赛车标准的官方会被不断告知自行车的设计。即便是他们被告知自行车的设计，也不能削弱自行车的创新被官方标准所限制的结论。无关项。
 小技巧：在假设题中，70%以上的正确答案都是以否定句的形式也就是“NOT+WEAKEN”的形式出现的。所以在做假设题的时候可以先把所有选项中的否定句找出来，取反看是否削弱，如果削弱即使假设，如果否定句不是答案再去看肯定句。